Will Home Prices Ever Go Down?

Sep 19, 2024

8-minute read

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A couple with a baby in a new home, symbolizing the joy of starting a family in a new place.

If you’re looking to buy a house, you may be seeing the figures being reported in the press and asking yourself the question, will home prices ever go down? While it’s easy to be frustrated when looking at the national numbers, it’s important to remember that real estate is greatly influenced by location. What matters most is what’s happening on the ground in your area.

Are Property Prices Going Down?

In most areas of the country, it’s still a seller’s market. This is proven out by the fact that home prices are going up if you look at the national indices. We’ll go over that, but we’ll also zoom in on some local markets because the picture may differ quite a bit depending on where you are.

Want a snapshot for your area? Check out the trend reports offered by our friends at Rocket Homes℠.1

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

The Case-Shiller index looks at purchase transactions in major markets across the country. There’s a 2-month lag between the date of the release and the most current numbers. But it does give a snapshot of all transactions. According to the most recent data available for June 2024, prices are up 5.42% for the year.

FHFA House Price Index

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is the federal regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest backers of conventional loans in the mortgage market. The agency has a house price index that comes out the same cadence and lagging data time as the Case-Shiller index, but it looks specifically at transactions backed by conventional loans.

On a national basis, the data shows that prices are up 5.7% since the second quarter of 2023. However, when you look at the data on a metropolitan level, four markets (New Orleans, Louisiana; Oakland, California; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida and Austin, Texas) have seen price drops ranging from an average of 0.2% to an average of 3.2% on the year. Further, 17 markets have seen price drops over the course of the quarter. The tides may be changing locally.